Marine Le Pen's National Rally Gains Momentum: France Wonders If Croissants Will Be the Next National Target
In a scene reminiscent of a political thriller mixed with a French bakery's supply chain crisis, President Emmanuel Macron announced his intention to dissolve parliament and call for a snap election. This hail-Mary move followed a dismal showing of his centrist Renaissance party in the European Union elections—an event as disastrous for Macron as forgetting to bake croissants for a Parisian breakfast.
The National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, secured about 32% of the vote in those elections, causing considerable panic in the Élysée Palace. Comparatively, Macron’s Renaissance party is expected to make do with around 15%—a figure so low it might qualify for a pity discount on the Champs-Élysées.
The upcoming snap parliamentary elections will occur in two rounds on June 30 and July 7, presumably to see if Macron's strategy can rise like a soufflé or deflate under the pressure. For those who are keeping track of the recent rebranding efforts, the National Rally was known until 2018 as the National Front, a name change meant to make it sound less like an exasperating part in a history textbook and more like a head-scratching modern political twist.
Originally founded in 1972 by Jean-Marie Le Pen, the National Rally has found a new leading star in the young 28-year-old Jordan Bardella. With 88 MPs, the National Rally is the largest opposition party, taking a hard stance on immigration and advocating for the drastic reduction of it. Naturally, this has French citizens musing whether croissants and baguettes might become the next targets for "national purity."
While the National Rally no longer seeks to leave the EU, their plans to reform it from within have people contemplating if this isn't the political equivalent of rebranding "cassoulet" as "hearty bean stew."
Bardella won the EU election with a presidentially toned victory speech, celebrating the sort of win Emmanuel Macron can only dream of as he stares at his 21% approval rating. Macron's low popularity and his party's weak standing in the lower house—169 out of 577 lawmakers—could force him into 'cohabitation'. This condition sounds more like an awkward Airbnb arrangement with a prime minister from the opposition than a functioning government.
Should the National Rally win a majority, Macron would maintain control over defense and foreign policy but lose the domestic agenda. It's the political version of being left with only the crust of a beautifully baked tart.
Eurasia Group has predicted a hung parliament as the most likely scenario. Not quite a ringing endorsement, but at least it's not a scorched croissant. Adding to the delight of Macron's adversaries, Le Pen welcomed the snap elections, possibly with the same satisfaction of a baker watching a competitor's bread fail to rise in the oven.
Moreover, the National Rally aims to dial back EU climate rules, presenting an interesting debate of whether the party finds rainy Paris streets charming or simply a minor inconvenience in their quest to reshape Europe. Unified in their approach, Macron has been advocating for Europe-wide efforts to defend Ukraine and bolster EU defenses, setting the stage for what could be an unpredictable legislative showdown.
Throughout his presidency, Macron has aimed to make France a beacon of progressive politics. Now, with the National Rally gearing up to limit the free movement of migrants by carrying out national border controls, one might wonder if we won't soon see new restrictions on where croissants can travel, all in the name of “patriotic” flour and butter.
As the political winds in France continue to turn, one can only hope that whatever unfolds next, the beloved traditions and culinary delights of the country remain unsuspecting spectators. Because if there's one thing uniting France, it's certainly not politics—it's the unwavering love for perfectly prepared pastries.