Nobel Economists Predict: Trump Term 2, Inflation Boogaloo

Nobel Economists Predict: Trump Term 2, Inflation Boogaloo

4 minute read
Published: 6/26/2024

Sixteen Nobel economists predict déjà vu inflation under a second Trump term, warning his fiscal policies could send the economy spiraling faster than a rollercoaster built with Monopoly money.

Sounding alarm bells louder than a New Year's Eve countdown, a cadre of Nobel Prize-winning economists, led by Joseph Stiglitz, has released a letter warning that a second Trump presidency could unleash a torrent of inflation. Citing everything from proposed permanent tax cuts to a trade war strategy straight from a toddler's playbook, the experts argue that Trump's economic policies are akin to adding fireworks to a dumpster fire. Nonpartisan researchers and mainstream economists agree: while Americans might favor Trump's economic record, his plans could make a rollercoaster ride seem like a calm Sunday drive in comparison.

The ensemble of economists, who have more accolades than Trump's cabinet members have lawsuits, underscored that the combination of making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and slapping tariffs on imports could reignite inflation. Trump’s trade tariffs, a signature motif of his white-knuckle economic strategy, could single-handedly boost prices, making the cost of avocado toast and everything in between skyrocket.

"Trump’s fiscal irresponsibility in his first term showed a blatant disregard for economic stability," Stiglitz reportedly wrote, more pointedly than a quip from a late-night talk show host. The letter emphasized that Trump’s previous administration's decisions led to an $8.4 trillion hike in new 10-year borrowing, almost double what Biden has clocked in thus far.

Piling onto the fiscal rollercoaster, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that continuing Trump’s tax cuts would bleed nearly $5 trillion. It’s like extending a sale on the Titanic but for our economy. And with the Federal Reserve attempting to slow down the economic juggernaut to stave off inflation, Trump’s tax cuts would only serve to push it closer to the cliff edge.

The Nobel laureates' grim forecast didn’t end with tax cuts and tariffs. They pointed out that Trump's stringent immigration policies could exacerbate labor shortages, heating up the job market and fueling consumer prices. It’s like trying to extinguish a fire with a flamethrower.

Moody's Analytics, playing the role of the cautious financial babysitter, warned of even gloomier outcomes. They suggested that a Republican sweep could drive inflation back up, unemployment above 5%, and potentially topple the US into a recession. In contrast, Moody's opined that a Biden win with a divided Congress would lead to more stable economic results, featuring Fed rate cuts and normalized inflation without a recession in sight.

Despite these warnings, Trump’s campaign has dismissed the economists' conclusions faster than one can say "alternative facts." They placed the blame squarely on Biden’s shoulders for the current inflation rates, presenting this critique as the ultimate counterpunch.

Contradicting Trump's dismissal, the economists lauded Biden’s policies. They applauded his investment in infrastructure and climate initiatives, highlighting that these plans would reduce inflationary pressures in the long run. In their view, Biden's financial stewardship is a bit like replacing a reckless driver with someone using the GPS.

Mainstream economists and think tanks such as Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute echoed similar sentiments. They agree that Trump's agenda could set the economy on a crash course with higher inflation rates, much like introducing a bull into a crystal shop.

Mark Zandi, the Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, noted that consumer prices could skyrocket if Trump’s trade policies are reinstated. Higher tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods, are expected to lead to widespread price increases across a number of sectors, from electronics to everyday groceries. It’s like trying to uncook spaghetti—the bits and pieces of inflation would be hard to untangle.

The Nobel economists’ letter paints a vivid contrast to Trump's economic narrative. They express concerns not just about potential economic turmoil, but also about the broader implications for the rule of law and stability under another Trump administration. It's as if these Nobel laureates are holding up a big sign that says, 'Caution: Economic Drama Ahead!'

In this economic soap opera, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The choice between Trump’s fireworks-laden dumpster fire and Biden’s cooled-down GPS-led journey represent two very distinct paths for the country's fiscal future. So as Americans prepare to navigate these economic waters, they'll need more than just a lifeboat—they might want the whole Coast Guard.