Iran’s presidential election heads to a July 5 runoff as reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hard-liner Saeed Jalili fail to secure 50% of votes, surprising no one—except maybe the ballot boxes.

With neither candidate achieving the majority needed to clinch victory, the stage is set for a high-stakes July 5 runoff between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, who dreams of mending ties with the West, and hard-liner Saeed Jalili, ever the nuclear negotiator. As voters prepare for round two, the fallout from the low 40% turnout and last-minute ballot surprises ensure this political drama is far from over.

In the initial election phase, Pezeshkian and Jalili managed to stir the pot but not enough to season a win, as neither surpassed the 50% threshold required by Iranian law to avoid a runoff. Pezeshkian came close with nearly 10.4 million votes, while Jalili trailed with nearly 9.4 million votes. However, it's worth noting that initial results showed Pezeshkian with 8.3 million votes and Jalili with 7.18 million, meaning they both gained some last-minute love—or at least, last-minute votes.

Iranian state television was the first to break the news of the tight race between the candidate fond of reforms and the one more comfortable with a dose of hard-line rhetoric. If only the ratings were as high as the raised eyebrows when the results were announced by election committee spokesperson Mohsen Eslami.

The runoff election will follow a rigorous review by the influential Guardian Council. This body of 12 legal eagles, known for their penchant for scrutinizing results, will ensure everything is in order before the candidates start their campaigns anew. What the Guardian Council finds thrilling about number-crunching is anyone’s guess, but here we are.

The low 40% voter turnout tells one part of the story, with 24 million ballots cast out of a possible 60 million. It's apparent that many Iranians echoed the sentiments of Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi and political figure Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had called for an election boycott. Clearly, some people had better things to do than vote, though what those things were remains a mystery.

For those keeping tabs, the replacement is necessitated by the untimely and tragic passing of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash this past May. The absence of international oversight on the electoral process and the exclusion of women and radical voices since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have only added layers of intrigue—or perhaps futility—to the electoral endeavor.

The candidates, besides Pezeshkian and Jalili, included other notable figures like hard-line parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Shiite cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi, who, let's admit, did not lend enough sparkle to make it competitive against the top two. Pourmohammadi’s support for the establishment and Qalibaf’s conservatism were clearly not enough to capture the public’s imagination—or votes.

Among the heavyweights, Pezeshkian, a former health minister with reformist flair, stands in contrast to Jalili, whose forte lies in security advising and nuclear negotiations. Pezeshkian aims to cozy up to the West and breathe life into the nuclear deal, visions unlikely to improve his standing with Supreme Leader Khamenei, who frowns upon such Western-leaning tendencies.

Further spicing up the electoral stew was an attack during the election, where gunmen targeted a van transporting ballot boxes in Sistan and Baluchestan province. This unfortunate incident resulted in the death of two police officers and injuries to others, adding a somber tone to an already tense election period. One can never accuse Iranian elections of lacking drama.

The road to the runoff will see Pezeshkian and Jalili vie for the affection of a possibly TV-binge-weary and vote-weary public. With the Guardian Council’s review looming and campaigns set to kick off, the final verdict will hinge on how effectively each candidate can mobilize their base and lure the undecided. Given the stakes, it’s anyone’s guess who will cross the finish line.

Until then, Iran watches, waits, and perhaps secretly wishes for a popcorn vendor to materialize. The stakes are high, the candidates determined, and the voters hopefully more engaged as Pezeshkian and Jalili prepare to jockey for that elusive majority in the torrid summer runoff.