Crime's New Fashion: Violent Rates Drop, Shoplifting Soars
While most crimes have tiptoed back to pre-pandemic levels, shoplifting sprinted ahead with a 24% surge in the first half of 2024, possibly thanks to more stores tattling on sticky-fingered shoppers.
Unlike the general trend of diminishing crime rates, shoplifting has seen a shocking 24% surge in the first half of 2024 compared to last year. Experts speculate that increased vigilance and reporting by retailers may be inflating these figures, painting an alarmingly sticky-fingered portrait of America even as other crime categories stabilize or decline. In stark contrast, violent crimes such as homicides and carjackings show substantial drops, underscoring the complex and often contradictory nature of post-pandemic crime trends.
This upward trend in shoplifting comes after a brief respite where rates of theft initially fell between 2019 to 2020 and continued to decline into 2021. But just like your freeloading cousin at a family barbecue, shoplifting made a conspicuous comeback starting in 2022, steadily rising ever since.
Ernesto Lopez, a senior researcher with the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), noted that the surge might be less about an actual increase in shoplifting and more about an uptick in reporting. 'With all the focus on retail theft, it's not surprising that stores are trying harder to document every instance of shoplifting,' says Lopez, who appears to be suggesting that the country's kleptomania is perhaps not worsening but better documented.
While shoplifters are seizing headline real estate, most Americans are inhaling a sigh of relief over the drop in violent crimes. Homicide rates in the U.S. fell by about 13% from the same period last year and are 2% lower than in 2019. However, cities like Buffalo and Syracuse have decided to be the outliers, where homicide rates continued to climb, presumably with ambitions of topping the charts.
Other areas of criminal activity have also seen declines. Motor vehicle thefts have reversed their upward trend, decreasing by 18% in the first half of 2024 compared to last year. Nevertheless, they are still 66% higher than they were back in the simpler times of 2019 when carjackers hadn’t yet become overachievers.
On the flip side, aggravated assaults and domestic violence rates are about the same or slightly lower than what we saw in 2019. This hints that most people are now channeling their pent-up post-pandemic energy into more constructive activities, like binge-watching TV shows instead of binge-fighting.
Residential and nonresidential burglaries, larcenies, and drug offenses have all taken a nosedive compared to the same time period in 2023. This could indicate that those industries are simply running out of steam—or perhaps potential perpetrators are just too busy shoppinglift...sorry, shoplifting.
But then, there’s the personal safety paradox. Despite most violent crimes reverting to pre-pandemic levels, a survey from late 2023 showed that Americans' fears were at a three-decade high. An unsettling 40% of people reported being afraid to walk home alone at night, implying that feelings of safety and the reality of crime statistics aren’t necessarily snug bedfellows.
CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb touched on the broader implications, suggesting the pandemic muddled the usual ‘motives, means, and opportunities’ that drive criminal behavior. Indeed, the pandemic seemed to have disrupted everything except the need for toilet paper and amateur bread baking.
Despite the seemingly good news regarding violent crime rates, policymakers should not start popping open the champagne just yet. The CCJ report advises continued vigilance to protect lives. Policymakers may want to consider crafting more effective policies and measures that can address the ongoing issues, including the surge in shoplifting and the public's heightened sense of insecurity.
Certainly, the brazen 'smash-and-grab' incidents haven’t helped matters, contributing significantly to the gloomy perceptions of safety and crime. The broken storefront glass and the strewn-about merchandise are difficult to overlook when discussing community anxiety. In fact, it's almost as if thieves are trying to make an uninvited statement in modern art.
In essence, while Americans are statistically safer from violent crimes as of late, the rampant rise in shoplifting has emerged as the new criminal pastime. It seems that today's lawbreaker, instead of donning a ski mask and plotting a bank heist, is more likely grabbing a five-finger discount on various goods.
So the next time you’re out shopping, feel free to consider the complicated dance of our crime rates: a slow waltz in some areas, and a breakdance in others. But keep a close eye on your cart, because shoplifting seems to be the hottest trend of 2024.