Ceasefire Talks in Saudi Arabia: Black Sea Poker Game

Ceasefire Talks in Saudi Arabia: Black Sea Poker Game

4 minute read
Published: 3/24/2025

In a bid for peace, U.S. negotiators have camped out in Saudi Arabia, trying to convince Russia to stop firing shots in the Black Sea long enough for shipping to flow like a calm river—good luck with that.

As U.S. and Russian officials convene in Riyadh for what could be the world's most optimistic camping trip, the aim is not just a maritime ceasefire, but the revival of hope for the countless Ukrainian families affected by ongoing violence. While they're discussing control lines and diplomatic measures to ease tensions, the shadow of conflict looms large, with accusations of continued attacks and the heartbreaking issue of Ukrainian children taken by Russia hanging over the talks like a storm cloud. If they succeed, it could mean more than just smoother sailing for shipping— it could offer a glimmer of safety for those caught in the crossfire.

The discussions commenced on Monday morning between a U.S. delegation and Russian negotiators, somewhat resembling the start of an awkward first date, where both parties are unsure if they should kick things off with a handshake or a round of lighthearted banter about the weather. Despite the bleakness of the ongoing conflict, the U.S. contingent seems intent on transforming this diplomatic rendezvous into an Oscar-worthy negotiation scene.

The primary goal of these talks is to forge a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, a region currently resembling a high-stakes game of whack-a-mole rather than a hub of peaceful shipping. With the global shipping industry eager to resume operations without dodging artillery fire, this initiative is seen as the proverbial carrot dangling in front of the two nations, though we’re still waiting for either side to actually take a bite.

Intriguingly, Waltz has indicated that discussions aren't limited to naval affairs alone. They also cover what he calls 'the line of control' between Ukraine and Russia, which sounds less like a necessary diplomatic boundary and more like a restrictive sign at a school dance. Verification measures and peacekeeping are also on the agenda, underscoring the painstaking processes of diplomacy—where for every step forward, it seems there might be one backward, particularly if the wrong genre of music comes on.

Equally pressing is the matter of Ukrainian children who have been detained and transported to Russia. Confidence-building measures being discussed aim to address this humanitarian crisis. It's a task as delicate as a game of Jenga, with each block representing another child potentially caught up in a tragedy larger than themselves. The return of these children is seen as more than a negotiating point; for many families, it could recover a piece of their lives that this conflict has shattered.

The talks have come on the heels of U.S. negotiations with Ukraine, which occurred just the day before these meetings kicked off in Riyadh. It appears the U.S. is determined to keep the lines of communication open, much like your uncle who insists on texting you every hour about his golf game. This preemptive approach also reflects the intertwined nature of the relationships at play, with U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly having conversations with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of the deliberations, almost as if he was trying to set them up for a diplomatic speed date.

Russia's delegation is no stranger to these negotiations, featuring diplomats Grigory Karasin and Sergei Beseda. They bring their own experience and intent to the table, although one must wonder if they brought popcorn for the political drama sure to unfold. Yet, amidst the optimism, there's a sizable cloud of skepticism hanging over the talks, especially from some European nations who wonder whether Putin is even willing to budge an inch, or if he sees discussion as an elaborate charade to keep the West distracted.

On the other hand, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, recently spotted in Moscow, expressed a belief that Putin is genuinely seeking peace, which surely sends a sense of hope simmering below the surface. Witkoff’s optimistic viewpoint could be likened to a tooth fairy story—charming yet a touch improbable given the circumstances. As everyone knows, it’s easier to wish for peace and shake hands than to achieve it any time soon.

However, the ongoing situation may continue playing hide-and-seek with hope, as reported attacks by Russian forces persist across various regions of Ukraine, even as these ceasefire conversations take place. This grim reality serves as a constant reminder that every diplomatic endeavor might well be a case of whistling in the dark, waiting for the dawn that seems perpetually a few steps away.

As the talks progress, one can only hope that the representatives manage to channel their inner diplomats and emerge with concrete steps towards relief, liquidity for shipping, and most importantly, peace. But for now, those watching are left to ponder whether this is simply a round of poker or the beginning of a long and arduous process to untangle the mess of geopolitical chess that the world has come to know as the Russia-Ukraine crisis.