In March 2024, the U.S. and China resumed semi-official nuclear arms talks for the first time in five years, with China asserting it wouldn't use nuclear weapons in any conflict over Taiwan.

These Track Two discussions, involving former officials and scholars rather than current government representatives, mark a tentative step towards re-engaging in dialogue amidst heightened tensions and military activity around Taiwan. The Chinese delegation emphasized confidence in conventional military capabilities, aiming to reassure the U.S. but also reflecting ongoing challenges in formal negotiations, which stalled late last year. Both sides see value in continued conversations to address nuclear risks, as China's nuclear arsenal has significantly expanded while the U.S. remains wary of its strategic intentions and policies.

China's representatives reassured their U.S. counterparts that the nation would not resort to nuclear weapons in any potential conflict over Taiwan. They expressed confidence in prevailing through conventional means, echoing Beijing's long-held stance on the matter. This assurance was a significant point of discussion, aiming to alleviate U.S. concerns amid escalating military activities in the Taiwan Strait.

Track Two talks serve as informal, yet authoritative platforms where former officials and academics can discuss sensitive issues and offer insights into their respective governments' positions. Unlike the formal government-to-government Track One talks, these discussions allow for more flexible and candid exchanges. The recent dialogues in Shanghai in March 2024 included a diverse mix of scholars, analysts, and former military officers from China, alongside former U.S. officials and academic experts.

The U.S. State Department acknowledged the importance of Track Two talks, emphasizing their potential benefits. However, they cautioned that such informal dialogues should not be seen as a substitute for formal Track One negotiations. These formal discussions briefly resumed in November 2023 after a hiatus but stalled soon after, highlighting the persistent challenges in U.S.-China diplomatic relations.

One of the critical topics addressed during the Shanghai meeting was China's adherence to its longstanding policies of no-first-use (NFU) and minimal deterrence. U.S. delegates sought clarity on whether Beijing remained committed to these doctrines. Chinese representatives maintained that they were not interested in achieving nuclear parity or superiority with the United States, reaffirming their stance on minimal deterrence.

Both delegations recognized the importance of continuing the dialogue. Despite moments of frustration, they agreed on the necessity of further talks, with plans for another round of Track Two meetings slated for 2025. Such ongoing discussions are viewed as essential for mitigating nuclear risks and building mutual understanding.

Contextualizing the urgency of these talks, the Pentagon reported that China's nuclear arsenal had increased by more than 20% between 2021 and 2023. This expansion encompasses a range of military capabilities, including anti-ship cruise missiles, bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarines. The ongoing modernization of China's military is perceived as a counter to the advancements in U.S. missile defenses and surveillance capabilities.

In light of these developments, the dialogue in March 2024 formed part of a longer, two-decade effort to address nuclear weapons and posture. This dialogue had stalled after the Trump administration withdrew funding in 2019, and although Track Two meetings had resumed post-pandemic, the recent Shanghai meeting was the first to delve deeply into nuclear issues.

The increased military activity around Taiwan over the past four years has amplified the stakes of these discussions. As both nations grapple with major economic and geopolitical disputes, accusations of bad faith dealings have further strained relations. Consequently, the reassurances provided by the Chinese delegation on the non-use of nuclear weapons in Taiwan-related conflicts are particularly pertinent.

Bonnie Jenkins, the top U.S. arms control official, informed Congress in May 2024 that China had not yet responded to proposals aimed at reducing nuclear weapon risks. This lack of response underscores the ongoing challenges in achieving concrete progress through formal diplomatic channels.

Despite the complications, the continuation of Track Two talks indicates a mutual interest in maintaining some level of communication. Both the U.S. and Chinese delegates expressed a determination to remain engaged in dialogue, highlighting the importance they place on managing and mitigating nuclear risks amidst an increasingly complex international landscape.