Russia's New Strategy: Turning East to Avoid West's Mean Girls
Welcome to the geopolitical version of “Mean Girls,” where Russia, having been given the cold shoulder by its former BFFs in the West, has decided to start hanging out with the East's cool kids. This week, the high school cafeteria of the global economy added a new table: the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Russia’s premier investment event, where western companies are now persona non grata, and Asian, African, and Middle Eastern countries are new besties.
With Russia's war in Ukraine causing friendships to sour faster than a glass of milk in July, the West has imposed a series of sanctions tighter than a pair of skinny jeans after Thanksgiving dinner. This has left Russia frantically pivoting towards Asia and the non-Western world for its economic partnerships (Reuters, Fox).
For instance, at SPIEF, major Western companies and investment bigwigs were conspicuously missing, replaced by power players from China, Saudi Arabia, Zimbabwe, and Afghanistan (Reuters, Fox). Indeed, it seems that Russia's line-up of new friends yields more surprises than a season finale of "Keeping Up with the Kardashians."
Yet, despite the glaring absence of Western megacorps, Russia's economy has shown resilience, somewhat akin to that unshakable aunt who insists everything's fine at family gatherings despite clear signs of turmoil (Reuters, Fox). Sure, prices are on the rise due to increased defense spending, but you won’t hear them admit that at the dinner table. Russians have instead been nurturing ties with China and Saudi Arabia, highlighted as key participants at the forum, where they were greeted with open arms and numerous photo ops (Reuters, Fox).
While no major investment deals were announced at the forum—making it more of a networking event than a business bonanza—the participation of countries from Africa and the Middle East is an indication of who Russia plans to pass notes to in class moving forward (Reuters, Fox). Notably, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Bolivian President Luis Arce also graced the event with their presence, perhaps there to solidify their roles in the new world clique (Reuters, Fox).
SPIEF’s theme, “The foundation of a multipolar world is the formation of new points of growth,” reads like a mission statement for the anti-Regina George coalition (Reuters, Fox). The resurrection of China's economic and linguistic influence was on full display, with Alfa Bank’s stand prominently featuring Chinese characters, unabashedly claiming the title of the best bank for business with China (Reuters, Fox).
In dollar terms, Russia’s economy today is remarkably like that one piece of high school clothing you’re still proud to fit into, being essentially the same size now as it was a decade ago. This economic resilience shows that Western sanctions have yet to entirely bring Russia's economy to its knees (Reuters, Fox).
So, while Western countries might be the "Mean Girls" Lindsay Lohan had to navigate, Russia's pivot towards Asia and other non-Western countries demonstrates a new strategy, wrapping geopolitics in narratives straight out of a high school drama. As the West slams Russia's locker shut, it’s clear Russia is just going to paint it a different color and hang out with a new crowd at lunch.